Bulgarians love to make predictions, all kinds of predictions, on all kinds of topics, often without even having complete information. At the moment we are being flooded with predictions about what will happen, where the market will go and what not. I must have heard 200 different opinions in the last month. The interesting thing is that some of them will turn out to be true. The problem - which ones?
The bad thing about prediction is that you only find out if you are right after the event is over, when it is generally too late to act. Interestingly, people who make predictions are often unprepared for the consequences of their predictions, and in extremely rare cases manage to take advantage of them. Our aim today is not to give predictions, we are going to tell you how the market has moved over the years, what has happened, which events have affected it and most importantly - what to do if one or the other option happens and how to take advantage of the situation.
I don't watch Boyko Borisov, when he starts spouting all sorts of numbers and my head hurts. Most people are amazed when they hear a big number, but they are ashamed to admit that it means nothing to them. We're going to give you a lot of statistics today, but we're also going to break it down and explain what it means to you and how you can benefit from it. We need to stop generalizing, go from the particular to the general. We need to look for specific answers to specific questions, not for one event to be the determinant - one bank has raised interest rates, a headline - banks are raising interest rates.
Why is it so interesting to buy property and not to invest in business - because you don't have to do anything, you sit and get rent, you don't have to deal with suppliers, employees, taxes and all that, it's the Bulgarian dream. Why are some properties overpriced - because you don't differentiate between them and their features, you generalize - new construction is skyrocketing, and why shouldn't I also raise my 1970 panel house that is due for total renovation to the same price.
For the purpose of the analysis, it is right to categorize everyone into one of the three categories of buyers that we have distinguished and to look from this point of view - what does this or that event, this or that trend mean for him, in his particular situation.
Buyers for their own needs are always predominant. For them, any time is a good time to buy. They need a home - whether their old one is cramped, whether they don't have one, whether they are renting, they buy to use. Ultimately, their benefit is the occupancy itself.
Second are buyers for investment purposes. They buy to rent, they are interested in the return on a property, the bigger the better. But, keep in mind - returns at different times in the market are different, you can't expect 8% returns consistently for 20 years.
Speculative buyers are people who are looking to buy cheap and sell expensive, for them timing is everything. They monitor the market, they know at every moment what phase it is in, so they can get the maximum profit out of the deal. But to be a successful speculator it takes a lot of research and knowledge of the market and its dynamics.
